The new Generative AI is surprising and dizzying, but the pattern in which it develops is known

It is impossible not to admire the new intelligent systems that most of us have been exposed to in recent months. The CHATGPT4, MIDJOURNEY and other tools that are already starting to change our lives as consumers and users. Revolutions of such a huge magnitude have already happened, and there is one woman who understood and explained all this twenty years ago. Her name is Prof. Carlota Perez, a Venezuelan Innovation Economist. She studied five such revolutions:

1. The Industrial Revolution

2. Age of Steam

3. Age of Steel, Electricity, and heavy Engineering

4. Age of Oil, Automobiles, and Mass Production

5. Age of Information and Telecommunication

As you can see in the diagram, they all have a very similar structure. A bit reminiscent of the Hype Cycle. They start by building the basic technology, until it reaches the "breakout" stage, when wide audiences are exposed to it. Everyone understands that a new infrastructure is coming and that everything is going to change. As a result, many commercial and government entities, private investors and entrepreneurs, invest money. Lots and lots of money. A huge financial bubble is formed, which at some point bursts. After several years of depression and economic slowdown, the new infrastructure begins to create enormous value and changes the entire society.

Where is the GENERATIVE AI? We are at the beginning of the bubble inflation. Everyone has ventures in the field, everyone teaches and deals with the subject. It is true that the rates may be faster than before, but if I can predict it will still take years until the new infrastructures based on the Generative AI will b e established. What does this mean in practice?

Personally - I adopt two or three engines, one for language, one for images and maybe one for presentations. I will stay with the same tools, improve my way of using them and upgrade along with them. The quality of the results I will get is affected by my informed ability to use the tool, no less than its power. Hundreds of new tools are being created weekly and the vast majority of them will not survive, so no point of chasing one or the other.

At the career level - along with the revolution we are also at the beginning of a recession. I recommend that you screw up as much as possible in your current position because there is a rule that the last to join is also the first to be fired. Regarding entrepreneurship - I am biased. Entrepreneurship is always needed, the only question is which one.

At the level of the new venture I am working on - we will probably use such engines, but we will not be the ones who invent them. This is what the giant companies worth many billions are working on today, we will use their products.

As for investments - I recommend running away. We have no idea what will happen unless we are one of those who lead and can really influence the field.

You can read about Prof. Carlota Perez at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlota_Perez

Her latest article that explains the issue: https://www.strategy-business.com/article/Are-We-on-the-Verge-of-a-New-Golden-Age

Her important book was published in 2002 and is called: https://www.amazon.com/Technological-Revolutions-Financial-Capital-Dynamics/dp/1843763311

The diagram is taken from this book. She knew that of course there would be more big coups like this, she just didn't know in which field. She suggested that maybe biotechnology or nanotechnology, which by the way could still happen, but the question is whether they will be as huge as the revolution we embarked on right now.